应数学系苏颖邀请，美国迈阿密大学Shigui Ruan教授将于7月14日访问数学系，并做学术报告。

报告时间：7月14日14:30--15:30
报告地点：格物楼503
报告题目：Modeling Transmission Dynamics of Rabies in China    

报告摘要：Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In order to explore effective control and prevention measures we first propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We then modify the model to include stray dogs into account and use the model to simulate the human rabies cases reported in Guangdong Province. Furthermore, we consider the seasonal effect on the
transmission of rabies. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of the model parameters is performed and different control and prevention measures, such as culling and immunization of dogs, are compared.  Finally we discuss how the movement of dogs impacts the spatial spread of rabies by constructing a reaction-diffusion model and a multi-patch model for dogs and humans. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; (ii) large scale culling of dogs can be replaced by immunization of them; (iii) enhancing public education and awareness about rabies and strengthening supervision of pupils and children in the summer and autumn are also effective strategies in controlling rabies; and (iv) management of dogs and dog movement is important to reduce and prevent spatial spread of rabies.

 报告人简介：阮士贵教授，美国迈阿密大学数学系教授。阮士贵教授于1992年在加拿大Alberta大学获得应用数学博士学位，师从生物数学方向的国际知名专家Herb I. Freedman 教授。随后在Fields数学所做Junior Fellow 和McMaster大学做博士后。目前为迈阿密大学教授。 阮士贵教授的主要研究领域是动力系统和微分方程及其在生物和医学中的应用，他发表的论文近两百篇，受到了国内外同行的关注和大量引用。阮教授对一些传染病（如非典、乙型肝炎、血吸虫感染、狂犬病）的数学建模和理论分析做了一系列开创性工作。阮教授也是很多生物数学领域重要期刊（如 Mathematical Biosciences, DCDS-B, Journal of Biological Systems 等）的编委。